The International Hurricane Protection Association’s partner, Professor David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) releases his storm forecast well in advance of other agencies, and he stands by it through the season.
Professor Dilley issues his hurricane season predictions around February first of each year. Since 2009, the predictions were only updated once just prior or during the early portion of the season – generally in response to all the other organizations changing their predictions . Professor Dilley found that it was a mistake to update – the original prediction ended up being better than the update. GWO do not chase the season with updates and then finally say that the last update in August or September was a great prediction.
When Professor Dilley’s predictions for the 2023 season were issued in late January of this year, they were based on an El Nino forming during June and continuing through the remainder of the season. Some early named storms were expected prior to the El Nino taking hold, and this is what did occur in June with 3 named storms. Now that the El Nino is in place the month of July has been quiet.
Expect storm develops in August through September, but dampened somewhat by the El Nino, Yes, the ocean water temperatures are very much warmer than normal and you would typically expect this to cause an hyper-active season. But, there are other factors involved, such as an El Nino and ClimatePulse Cycles.
GWO’s prediction for the season remains unchanged, and the only thing that really matters are the landfalls. Professor Dilley still expects around 2 or 3 United States landfalls – but not a hyper-active season for the number of named storms.